balthazar

This trader holds 8,759 open positions — too many to rank by current value here, so they are listed by cost, largest first.

MarketOutcomeSharesAvg. priceValueCostPnL

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes250,11050.0¢$46,270.35$125,055.00-$78,785

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No250,00050.0¢$203,750.00$125,000.00+$78,750

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No162,00050.0¢$142,560.00$81,000.00+$61,560

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes162,00050.0¢$21,060.00$81,000.00-$59,940

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes16,37677.0¢$14,410.94$12,615.25+$1,796

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes13,07969.4¢$10,070.99$9,082.03+$989

Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?No7,12396.3¢$7,116.17$6,860.21+$256

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes7,45172.1¢$6,564.55$5,372.88+$1,192

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No5,03399.8¢$5,027.88$5,022.28+$6

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes5,38681.0¢$4,416.12$4,360.48+$56

Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes14,79226.5¢$3,254.30$3,916.33-$662

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes13,71626.2¢$3,840.60$3,590.99+$250

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No4,95071.6¢$3,761.76$3,543.57+$218

Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes16,87420.8¢$2,024.85$3,505.12-$1,480

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes3,07191.3¢$2,954.69$2,804.36+$150

Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?No3,49077.9¢$3,455.02$2,717.40+$738

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes2,67995.3¢$2,625.71$2,554.05+$72

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No2,49790.8¢$1,576.82$2,267.66-$691

OpenAI IPO before 2027?No2,36992.9¢$2,272.97$2,200.76+$72

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No2,04695.2¢$1,954.26$1,948.33+$6

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes59,5103.0¢$59.51$1,812.43-$1,753

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No2,74064.5¢$2,548.08$1,768.56+$780

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No3,87144.0¢$2,167.69$1,703.13+$465

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No1,94086.9¢$1,877.75$1,684.97+$193

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes51,3193.1¢$51.32$1,601.71-$1,550

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes2,39966.2¢$2,384.76$1,589.30+$795

Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50,7203.1¢$50.72$1,581.96-$1,531

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes49,4953.1¢$49.49$1,543.39-$1,494

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes47,8423.1¢$47.84$1,491.52-$1,444

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes7,66719.3¢$1,226.72$1,477.06-$250