Traders

probability

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a80x74f1…16a8

Joined Aug 6, 20244,066 profile views

Total PnL
+$122k
Realized PnL
+$116k
Unrealized PnL
+$6.3k
Markets traded
6,225

PnL Performance

No current daily PnL history for this trader. Polymarket's daily history is collected for the top 200 of the overall leaderboards, and not shown once it is more than two days old.

1D change—Total PnL
7D change—Total PnL
30D change—Total PnL
Biggest win+$22.4kAll time, per Polymarket
Biggest loss
Avg. trade size$56.5889,250 trades on Polygon

Trader intelligence

Key facts about probability's trading

  • 1,242 open positionsAnd 2 settled, not yet redeemed
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Recent win rate
—
No closed market yet
Current streak
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Total PnL, day by day
Best placing
#301
Politics · This week · Volume
Avg. trade size
$56.58
89,250 trades on Polygon

Market exposure & outcomes

The markets this trader traded, by category, and how the closed ones ended

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Top market outcomes

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Recent large trades

Taker trades of $1,000 or more in the last 30 days, latest first

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Activity timeline

Newest first, times in UTC

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Positions

This trader holds 1,242 open positions — too many to rank by current value here, so they are listed by cost, largest first.

MarketOutcomeSharesAvg. priceValueCostPnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes5,065.7440.7¢$3,237.01$2,059.53+$1.2k
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?No2,036.4087.7¢$19.64$1,785.92−$1.8k
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes4,683.2438.1¢$814.88$1,784.92−$1.0k
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?No2,349.3374.5¢$1,853.62$1,750.15+$103
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes2,529.2168.4¢$1,770.45$1,730.65+$40
Will Manchester City finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No5,465.3926.7¢$2,530.48$1,461.10+$1.1k
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No1,537.9392.8¢$1,450.27$1,427.58+$23
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-13 House election by 0%-3%?Yes1,339.1595.4¢$1,307.01$1,277.84+$29
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes9,549.0012.8¢$1,184.08$1,223.81−$40
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?No1,309.0091.0¢$1,243.55$1,191.75+$52
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-16 House election by 3%-6%?Yes1,350.0386.2¢$1,347.33$1,163.69+$184
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?No1,985.6356.8¢$1,350.23$1,128.75+$221
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes1,099.3499.5¢$1,086.15$1,094.10−$7.95
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,094.8882.6¢$1,059.58$904.01+$156
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,619.2434.0¢$1,238.90$890.52+$348
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?No4,918.1916.0¢$118.04$787.72−$670
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election?No777.9899.9¢$776.97$777.01−$0.04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 60%-65%?Yes1,006.0373.8¢$979.05$742.15+$237
Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?No746.5890.9¢$671.92$678.67−$6.75
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?Yes2,670.1325.0¢$2,606.05$667.69+$1.9k
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?No737.5783.8¢$700.69$618.38+$82

Leaderboards

LeaderboardPeriodRanked byRankShares tradedPnL
OverallThis monthProfit & loss#588911,101.88+$48.2k
OverallThis weekProfit & loss#323151,702.77+$27.9k
FinanceTodayProfit & loss#9980.00+$2.80
PoliticsThis monthVolume#638406,952.52−$764
PoliticsThis weekVolume#301104,698.94−$11.3k
SportsAll timeProfit & loss#7189,965,906.43+$122k
TechAll timeProfit & loss#753128,193.34+$2.6k
TechTodayProfit & loss#4760.00+$1.53