probability

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a80x74f1…16a8

Joined Aug 6, 20243,473 profile views

Total PnL: +$161k
Realized PnL: +$133k
Unrealized PnL: +$28.2k
Markets traded: 4,920

PnL Performance

No current daily PnL history for this trader. Polymarket's daily history is collected for the top 200 of the overall leaderboards, and not shown once it is more than two days old.

1D change—Total PnL

7D change—Total PnL

30D change—Total PnL

Biggest win+$22.4kAll time, per Polymarket

Biggest loss

Avg. trade size$69.3763,811 trades on Polygon

Trader intelligence

Key facts about probability's trading

456 open positionsHeld now, from our record on Polygon

Recent win rate: —
Current streak: —
Best placing: #112
Avg. trade size: $69.37

Market exposure & outcomes

The markets this trader traded, by category, and how the closed ones ended

Top market outcomes

Recent large trades

Taker trades of $1,000 or more in the last 30 days, latest first

View all

Activity timeline

Newest first, times in UTC

Positions

MarketOutcomeSharesAvg. priceValueCostPnL

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No20,000.0050.0¢$19,360.00$10,000.00+$9.4k

Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?No11,377.4693.4¢$10,410.38$10,627.35−$217

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes11,270.7515.7¢$8,565.77$1,770.78+$6.8k

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes10,222.7452.9¢$4,549.12$5,405.61−$856

Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation on September 30?Yes3,043.6167.4¢$3,028.39$2,051.38+$1.0k

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes5,482.9520.5¢$2,467.33$1,122.54+$1.3k

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes2,223.0298.9¢$2,218.57$2,198.56+$20

Will Canva have the third highest private market valuation on September 30?No2,211.7199.8¢$2,209.50$2,207.74+$1.76

Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes10,571.193.8¢$2,008.53$404.26+$1.6k

Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?Yes2,012.8784.8¢$1,992.38$1,706.74+$286

Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on September 30?Yes1,944.9559.6¢$1,943.01$1,159.01+$784

Will Manchester City finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No2,781.326.4¢$1,638.20$178.68+$1.5k

Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?No1,474.8296.3¢$1,409.93$1,420.04−$10

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?Yes1,333.9298.9¢$1,309.91$1,319.21−$9.30

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes2,902.1331.0¢$1,276.94$898.84+$378

Will Brentford finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Yes2,654.0021.4¢$1,247.38$568.27+$679

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?No1,245.4993.5¢$1,213.11$1,165.01+$48

Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?Yes1,087.6195.9¢$1,068.04$1,043.02+$25

Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?No3,992.460.2¢$998.12$7.98+$1.0k

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by September 30?No911.9499.8¢$907.38$910.14−$2.76

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes1,880.8631.1¢$822.99$585.63+$237

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Yes2,537.1912.6¢$786.53$319.85+$467

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?Yes788.8493.9¢$775.43$740.72+$35

Will Manchester City finish in last place in the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No841.6172.5¢$757.45$609.94+$148

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $255B by September 30?No698.7799.9¢$696.67$697.87−$1.20

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes702.9496.1¢$682.56$675.30+$7.26

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?No737.5783.8¢$663.81$618.38+$45

Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?Yes1,134.4012.6¢$657.95$142.73+$515

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Yes696.2493.0¢$648.89$647.22+$1.67

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes20,000.0050.0¢$640.00$10,000.00−$9.4k

Leaderboards

LeaderboardPeriodRanked byRankShares tradedPnL

EconomicsThis monthProfit & loss#89362.28+$262

EconomicsThis weekProfit & loss#7820.00+$37

FinanceThis monthVolume#34939,993.63−$11.5k

FinanceThis weekVolume#5913,263.70−$669

FinanceTodayProfit & loss#2160.00+$29

MentionsThis monthVolume#573855.22−$228

MentionsThis weekVolume#220855.22−$228

PoliticsThis monthVolume#929103,397.01−$50.5k

PoliticsTodayVolume#640622.00−$91

SportsAll timeProfit & loss#6439,254,066.22+$132k

TechAll timeProfit & loss#670127,510.89+$2.8k

TechThis monthVolume#9475,292.23+$29

TechThis weekProfit & loss#1590.00+$315

TechTodayProfit & loss#1120.00+$42

PolySmarter