Judea-Pearl

0x4e94d9cef322b96fe4aa8a8fdbfe20e15bd0d6490x4e94…d649

Joined Apr 1, 2026573 profile views

#197 Mentions · This week · Volume

Total PnL: +$10
Realized PnL: +$725
Unrealized PnL: −$715
Markets traded: 497

PnL Performance

No current daily PnL history for this trader. Polymarket's daily history is collected for the top 200 of the overall leaderboards, and not shown once it is more than two days old.

1D change—Total PnL

7D change—Total PnL

30D change—Total PnL

Biggest win+$1.3kAll time, per Polymarket

Biggest loss

Avg. trade size$9.065,263 trades on Polygon

Trader intelligence

Key facts about Judea-Pearl's trading

80 open positionsHeld now, from our record on Polygon

Recent win rate: —
Current streak: —
Best placing: #197
Avg. trade size: $9.06

Market exposure & outcomes

The markets this trader traded, by category, and how the closed ones ended

Top market outcomes

Recent large trades

Taker trades of $1,000 or more in the last 30 days, latest first

Activity timeline

Newest first, times in UTC

Positions

MarketOutcomeSharesAvg. priceValueCostPnL

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No390.7670.2¢$300.89$274.24+$27

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo320.1688.8¢$297.75$284.23+$14

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Yes1,337.6618.8¢$254.16$251.73+$2.43

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No301.2535.2¢$177.74$106.18+$72

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes488.9955.8¢$156.48$272.74−$116

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes544.5727.4¢$136.14$149.29−$13

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Yes172.0264.5¢$108.37$110.95−$2.58

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?No100.0086.5¢$95.30$86.50+$8.80

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes527.1426.8¢$94.89$141.10−$46

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No157.5659.6¢$87.60$93.94−$6.33

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes120.0071.7¢$87.60$86.10+$1.50

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes279.9826.7¢$83.99$74.86+$9.13

Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Yes80.0088.5¢$69.94$70.80−$0.86

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes149.9666.5¢$61.48$99.72−$38

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No104.9847.3¢$60.89$49.64+$11

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No64.9265.0¢$55.83$42.20+$14

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No83.3260.0¢$50.83$49.99+$0.83

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?history incompleteYes248.1716.8¢$42.19$41.82+$0.37

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes239.9626.0¢$40.79$62.49−$22

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?No40.0079.5¢$39.92$31.80+$8.12

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes1,176.473.4¢$30.59$40.00−$9.41

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?history incompleteYes53.8654.0¢$29.08$29.08$0.00

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Yes220.0015.0¢$28.60$33.00−$4.40

Will Chase Infiniti rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?No40.0044.0¢$28.40$17.60+$11

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes66.9245.0¢$26.77$30.09−$3.32

Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?Yes699.998.0¢$18.18$56.00−$38

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes30.0070.0¢$18.00$21.00−$3

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No29.9965.5¢$17.99$19.64−$1.65

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?No46.8030.5¢$17.32$14.27+$3.04

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes143.6118.5¢$15.80$26.58−$11

Leaderboards

LeaderboardPeriodRanked byRankShares tradedPnL

EconomicsThis weekProfit & loss#34349.25+$134

MentionsThis monthVolume#527962.71−$82

MentionsThis weekVolume#197962.71−$82

TechThis monthProfit & loss#5054,752.15+$171

TechThis weekProfit & loss#5752,893.36+$36

TechThis weekVolume#5172,893.36+$36

TechTodayVolume#2562,063.71+$130